Melbourne City (K) 4-1 Newcastle Jets (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 11 Apr 2025

Melbourne City (K)
4-1 HT 2-0
Newcastle Jets (K)
📅11/04/2025 · 🕒09:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne City (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
74%
-9.3pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.1pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City (K) v Newcastle Jets (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.06/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.99
+28% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
350 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 73%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
11.9 Crosses 17.0
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Melbourne City (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City (K)
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K)
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.83 xG 1.01
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
502 Passes 195
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
33 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) 0-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
10.03.2024 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW
18.01.2020 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW
17.11.2019 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
20.01.2019 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 4-0 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW
09.12.2018 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) 1-3 HT 0-2 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne City (K) 4-1 Newcastle Jets (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City (K)
4-1
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K)
1.70 xG 0.45
70% Ball Possession 30%
24 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
490 Passes 148
84% Pass Accuracy 62%
41 Box Touches 6
19 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne City (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City (K) ran out comfortable winners over Newcastle Jets (K) 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Melbourne City (K) had 70% of the ball to Newcastle Jets (K)'s 30%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 1.70 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Melbourne City (K) and 0.33 for Newcastle Jets (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne City (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)?

Melbourne City (K) 4-1 Newcastle Jets (K) in the Australia - W-League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City (K) 65%, draw 21%, Newcastle Jets (K) 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
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