FC Tokyo 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.9
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
22%
5.09
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
9%
6.42
X/2
21%
4.99
X/X
15%
3.77
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
9%
3.44
2/X
4%
13.75
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.09 — our 22% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.2pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.4pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+2.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-2.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.3pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.31/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.11
+9% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.0 Crosses 16.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 0.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
366 Passes 305
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-3 HT 3-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
01.07.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
26.02.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
27.08.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-6 HT 0-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
21.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
12.09.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-1
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.45 xG 1.29
31% Ball Possession 69%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
240 Passes 640
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 31% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 69%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.45 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.33 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

FC Tokyo 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 35%, draw 27%, Kashiwa Reysol 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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