FC Tokyo 3-3 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.91
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
11%
5.44
X/2
11%
5.46
X/X
12%
3.96
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
19%
3.94
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.8pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.26/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.18
+3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
392 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
16.4 Crosses 17.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 0.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
356 Passes 300
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.07.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
26.02.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
27.08.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-6 HT 0-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
21.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
12.09.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
15.05.2021 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-4 HT 0-3 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
3-3
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.74 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
305 Passes 366
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 43
18 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 47% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 53%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 1.74 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Tokyo and 0.83 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

FC Tokyo 3-3 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 37%, draw 26%, Kashiwa Reysol 37%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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