Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
43%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.25
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.47
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.48
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
7%
5.64
X/2
13%
5.02
X/X
14%
3.54
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.79
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.3pp
43%
Away Win
36%
+7.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 40%
-27% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +21%
1.21/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.90
-33% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
339 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
21.2 Crosses 22.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.82 xG 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
236 Passes 246
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
09.04.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
10.07.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
29.04.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
13.12.2020 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
11.07.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-3
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.16 xG 0.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 1
259 Passes 139
72% Pass Accuracy 58%
19 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka edged past Kyoto Sanga 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Avispa Fukuoka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 61% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 39%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.16 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.00 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 31%, draw 26%, Avispa Fukuoka 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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