Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2024

Nagoya Grampus
0-1 HT 0-0
Gamba Osaka
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
14%
5.39
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.27 — our 38% vs market 37.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
20%
4.75
X/2
7%
6.14
X/X
18%
3.55
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.96
2/X
7%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.0pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.5pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-3.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nagoya Grampus v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.24/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.43
-11% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
14.4 Crosses 15.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 0.70
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
340 Passes 404
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
27.08.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-2 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
02.04.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
20.11.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-3 HT 0-3 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
22.04.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Gamba Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.38 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
4 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
375 Passes 422
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 9
32 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past Nagoya Grampus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 49% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 51%, shots finished 4-8, expected goals 0.38 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 42%, draw 32%, Gamba Osaka 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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