Albirex Niigata 2-4 Urawa Red Diamonds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2024

Albirex Niigata
2-4 HT 0-1
Urawa Red Diamonds
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 30% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.29
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
11%
7.03
X/2
15%
4.66
X/X
10%
4.16
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
12%
2.94
2/X
10%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+8.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albirex Niigata v Urawa Red Diamonds — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 48%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
0.92/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.02
-53% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
18.3 Crosses 17.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.9

Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.77 xG 2.09
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
356 Passes 418
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
18.03.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.07.2017 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
14.05.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-6 HT 1-5 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
22.10.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 1-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
14.05.2016 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP

Albirex Niigata 2-4 Urawa Red Diamonds — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
2-4
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
2.43 xG 2.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 1
511 Passes 475
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds saw off Albirex Niigata 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Urawa Red Diamonds found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 52% of the ball to Urawa Red Diamonds's 48%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.43 to 2.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Urawa Red Diamonds led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.17 for Urawa Red Diamonds.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Albirex Niigata 2-4 Urawa Red Diamonds in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 27%, Urawa Red Diamonds 36%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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