Jubilo Iwata 0-3 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.44
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.57
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
19%
4.35
X/2
8%
7.67
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
9%
5.69
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.15
Value flag · 2/X at 14.15 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
0.68/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.54
-12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.6 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.41
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 Passes 418
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
05.04.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-2 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JLK
07.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-0 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
18.06.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-1 HT 3-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
19.10.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-2 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
17.03.2019 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
0-3
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.44 xG 1.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
360 Passes 362
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu ran out comfortable winners over Jubilo Iwata 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Jubilo Iwata at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 50% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 50%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.44 to 1.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.33 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu?

Jubilo Iwata 0-3 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 46%, draw 30%, Sagan Tosu 24%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
11 May 2024
08:00 Albirex Niigata vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
08:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
09:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
09:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Consadole Sapporo Analysis →
10:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
10:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →