Ural 3-2 Neftekhimik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.53
No
57%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
36%
+7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
64%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 18%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.66/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.17
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +32%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Neftekhimik
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-1 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUS1
25.09.2018 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-3 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
3-2
AWAY Neftekhimik
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ural vs Neftekhimik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ural squeezed past Neftekhimik 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ural as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ural had 68% of the ball to Neftekhimik's 32%, shots finished 20-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ural had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ural and 1.50 for Neftekhimik.

What was the final score of Ural vs Neftekhimik?

Ural 3-2 Neftekhimik in the Russia - FNL on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Neftekhimik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ural win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Ural 55%, draw 26%, Neftekhimik 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ural) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ural) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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