LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
32%
4.08
Away
47%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.9
Over
38%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
39%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+6.5pp
32%
Draw
22%
+10.5pp
47%
Away Win
64%
-16.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
49%
+13.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
51%
-13.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LNZ Cherkasy EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 69%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -22%
0.97/2.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.89
+2% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
226 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LNZ Cherkasy
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 HT 2-0 LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy UKR
27.04.2024 LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
21.10.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 HT 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy UKR
POST-MATCH LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk cruised past LNZ Cherkasy 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 3.67 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukraine - Premier League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split LNZ Cherkasy 21%, draw 32%, Shakhtar Donetsk 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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