Monagas 3-2 Rayo Zuliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monagas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Zuliano EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.48/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.51
+13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
21.9 Crosses 15.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monagas
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Rayo Zuliano
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.63 xG 1.08
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
277 Passes 224
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.09.2024 Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano 1-2 HT 1-1 Monagas Monagas VEN
18.03.2024 Monagas Monagas 2-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano VEN
03.07.2023 Monagas Monagas 1-3 HT 1-1 Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano VEN
13.05.2023 Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano 1-0 HT 0-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monagas
3-2
AWAY Rayo Zuliano
1.86 xG 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
23 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 241
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monagas vs Rayo Zuliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monagas squeezed past Rayo Zuliano 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Monagas as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monagas had 52% of the ball to Rayo Zuliano's 48%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 1.86 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monagas's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Monagas and 1.50 for Rayo Zuliano.

What was the final score of Monagas vs Rayo Zuliano?

Monagas 3-2 Rayo Zuliano in the Venezuela - Premier League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monagas vs Rayo Zuliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monagas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Monagas 46%, draw 24%, Rayo Zuliano 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monagas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monagas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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