Melbourne Victory II 2-1 North Geelong Warriors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AVPL1, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
2-3 Goals
51%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.7pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY North Geelong Warriors EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory II vs North Geelong Warriors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory II nicked a narrow win over North Geelong Warriors 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Melbourne Victory II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory II vs North Geelong Warriors?

Melbourne Victory II 2-1 North Geelong Warriors in the AVPL1 on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory II vs North Geelong Warriors?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory II 39%, draw 28%, North Geelong Warriors 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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