Neftçi PFK 2-1 Araz Nahçıvan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.42
Draw
17%
4.34
Away
11%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
66%
+5.6pp
17%
Draw
20%
-2.6pp
11%
Away Win
14%
-3.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
2.04/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.49
+4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +6%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
451 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
01.02.2026 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-4 HT 0-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
19.10.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 1-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
29.03.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
26.01.2025 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
01.11.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
24.08.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Araz Nahçıvan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK edged past Araz Nahçıvan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Araz Nahçıvan led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.17 for Araz Nahçıvan.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Neftçi PFK 2-1 Araz Nahçıvan in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 72%, draw 17%, Araz Nahçıvan 11%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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11 Apr 2026
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