Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 11 May 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
1-5 HT 1-2
Crawley Town
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.51
Over Pick
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
25%
5.51
2-3
35%
2.01
4-5
28%
2.66
6+
12%
6.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
12%
4.14
X/2
12%
10.65
X/X
11%
6.62
2/1 ✗
10%
19.6
2/2
12%
7.1
2/X
6%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.6 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Milton Keynes Dons v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Milton Keynes Dons The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town The Market 23%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.43 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.09
0.93 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.69
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Great Defensevs comparable teams Average
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.9 Crosses 15.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.26 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
310 Passes 406
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.05.2024 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
29.12.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
15.08.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
02.03.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
03.11.2018 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-4 HT 0-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
10.01.2015 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
1-5
AWAY Crawley Town
1.87 xG 3.01
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 1
346 Passes 452
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Crawley Town swept aside Milton Keynes Dons 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. With 6 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

A gentle 46% lean on Milton Keynes Dons didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The market had leaned harder still (1.57, ~64%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (57%) came home.

Under the surface, Crawley Town saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.87 to 3.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.17 for Crawley Town.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town Result & Final Score

Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 46%, draw 24%, Crawley Town 30%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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