Varbergs 1-3 Örgryte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.21
Over 2.5
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
19%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.32
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 29% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.87
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.4
X/1
12%
5.08
X/2
11%
6.9
X/X
10%
5.32
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
17%
4.42
2/X
10%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-8.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.4pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Örgryte EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
0.99/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.54
-37% / +126% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
233 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varbergs
1-3
AWAY Örgryte
53% Ball Possession 47%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Varbergs vs Örgryte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Örgryte got the better of Varbergs 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Örgryte made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Varbergs had 53% of the ball to Örgryte's 47%, shots finished 4-8.

What was the final score of Varbergs vs Örgryte?

Varbergs 1-3 Örgryte in the Sweden - Superettan on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs vs Örgryte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varbergs win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Varbergs 36%, draw 28%, Örgryte 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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