Napoli 0-2 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 May 2024

Napoli
0-2 HT 0-2
Bologna
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.52
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
10%
4.34
X/2
8%
8.15
X/X
10%
4.6
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
12%
6.15
2/X
8%
13.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Bologna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.17
+26% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
16.8 Crosses 13.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Napoli vs Bologna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Bologna
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.01 xG 0.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
455 Passes 389
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
28.05.2023 Bologna Bologna 2-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
16.10.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
17.01.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
28.10.2021 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 2-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
07.03.2021 Napoli Napoli 3-1 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Napoli 0-2 Bologna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
0-2
AWAY Bologna
1.57 xG 1.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
478 Passes 318
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna saw off Napoli 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Napoli had 59% of the ball to Bologna's 41%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.57 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 0.83 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Bologna?

Napoli 0-2 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Napoli 44%, draw 26%, Bologna 30%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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