Milan 5-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 26% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.98
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
18%
3.88
X/2
6%
10.7
X/X
12%
5.97
2/1
11%
21.3
2/2
11%
7.97
2/X
6%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.74/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.50
-3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.8 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cagliari
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.99 xG 0.88
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
483 Passes 290
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.01.2024 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTK
27.09.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-3 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
19.03.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
29.08.2021 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 4-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
16.05.2021 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
18.01.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
5-1
AWAY Cagliari
3.30 xG 1.50
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
584 Passes 257
91% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan ran out comfortable winners over Cagliari 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Milan had 67% of the ball to Cagliari's 33%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 3.30 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Milan and 0.50 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Milan vs Cagliari?

Milan 5-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Milan 52%, draw 24%, Cagliari 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ BTTS No
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İTA More Italy - Serie A
11 May 2024
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