Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 11 May 2024

Araz Nahçıvan
0-1 HT 0-0
Turan Tovuz
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Araz Nahçıvan vs Turan Tovuz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Araz Nahçıvan v Turan Tovuz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.67/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.77
-45% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +43%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Araz Nahçıvan vs Turan Tovuz Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
24.12.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 3-1 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
04.08.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 3-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz edged past Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Turan Tovuz found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 2.67 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Turan Tovuz?

Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 39%, draw 26%, Turan Tovuz 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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