Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.8pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.90/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/0.87
+85% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-2 HT 0-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
04.08.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
06.06.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-3 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
23.05.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2-1
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali edged past Botev Plovdiv 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Arda Kardzhali found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 48% of the ball to Botev Plovdiv's 52%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.75 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 37%, draw 27%, Botev Plovdiv 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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