York United 3-1 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 29%
-63% / -63% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.65/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.53
-36% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
9.0 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valour
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.83
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
335 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.09.2023 York United York United 1-3 HT 0-1 Valour Valour CAPL
24.07.2023 Valour Valour 1-2 HT 1-2 York United York United KAPL
04.06.2023 Valour Valour 1-1 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL
16.04.2023 York United York United 0-2 HT 0-0 Valour Valour KAPL
24.09.2022 York United York United 3-1 HT 1-1 Valour Valour KAPL
08.08.2022 Valour Valour 2-0 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York United
3-1
AWAY Valour
3.52 xG 1.31
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
425 Passes 342
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH York United vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York United beat Valour 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had York United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, York United had 54% of the ball to Valour's 46%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 3.52 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valour led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for York United and 1.67 for Valour.

What was the final score of York United vs Valour?

York United 3-1 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York United vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated a York United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split York United 41%, draw 26%, Valour 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (York United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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