Oulu 1-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 May 2024

Oulu
1-1 HT 1-1
Gnistan
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

Oulu vs Gnistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.76
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
10%
4.79
X/2
10%
7.24
X/X
13%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.6
2/2
16%
4.94
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.4pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oulu v Gnistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.22/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.43/1.66
+11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -60%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
15.3 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 5.0

Oulu vs Gnistan Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Gnistan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
The Meetings
17.10.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN2
27.06.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
19.08.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
27.06.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 2-4 HT 1-3 Oulu Oulu FİN2
29.04.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2

Oulu 1-1 Gnistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
1-1
AWAY Gnistan
1.37 xG 0.38
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
192 Passes 104
56% Pass Accuracy 45%
29 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oulu vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu and Gnistan shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Oulu at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Oulu had 59% of the ball to Gnistan's 41%, shots finished 12-3, expected goals 1.37 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Oulu had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Oulu and 1.00 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Oulu vs Gnistan?

Oulu 1-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Oulu 43%, draw 25%, Gnistan 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Oulu), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Oulu) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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