Busan I Park 2-3 Asan Mugunghwa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Challenge, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
16%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Busan I Park EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Asan Mugunghwa EU Bookmakers 24%
-16% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -20%
1.77/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.26
-41% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 70%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
11.1 Crosses 18.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Busan I Park
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Asan Mugunghwa
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
232 Passes 308
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa 1-2 HT 1-1 Busan I Park Busan I Park GKOR2
28.05.2023 Busan I Park Busan I Park 2-0 HT 1-0 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa GKOR2
09.04.2023 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa 1-1 HT 1-0 Busan I Park Busan I Park GKOR2
09.10.2022 Busan I Park Busan I Park 4-0 HT 1-0 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa GKOR2
03.07.2022 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa 0-2 HT 0-0 Busan I Park Busan I Park GKOR2
09.05.2022 Busan I Park Busan I Park 3-1 HT 2-0 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa GKOR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Busan I Park
2-3
AWAY Asan Mugunghwa
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Busan I Park vs Asan Mugunghwa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Asan Mugunghwa edged past Busan I Park 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Busan I Park at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Busan I Park had 50% of the ball to Asan Mugunghwa's 50%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Busan I Park had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Busan I Park and 0.50 for Asan Mugunghwa.

What was the final score of Busan I Park vs Asan Mugunghwa?

Busan I Park 2-3 Asan Mugunghwa in the South Kore - K League Challenge on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Busan I Park vs Asan Mugunghwa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Busan I Park win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Busan I Park 52%, draw 23%, Asan Mugunghwa 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Busan I Park) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Busan I Park) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GKOR2 More South Kore - K League Challenge
11 May 2024
13:00 Suwon Bluewings vs Cheonan City Analysis →
13:00 Ansan Greeners vs Seoul E-Land Analysis →