Vegalta Sendai 2-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.48
6+ Goals
10%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vegalta Sendai EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 18%
-56% / -56% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.16/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.68
-44% / -63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
462 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vegalta Sendai
1W-1D-2L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
509 Passes 243
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.08.2023 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 0-2 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
19.03.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 0-1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
20.08.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 0-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
06.03.2022 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 0-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vegalta Sendai
2-1
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vegalta Sendai vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vegalta Sendai nicked a narrow win over ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vegalta Sendai as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vegalta Sendai had 50% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 50%, shots finished 9-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, ThespaKusatsu Gunma led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vegalta Sendai and 1.00 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of Vegalta Sendai vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Vegalta Sendai 2-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J2 League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vegalta Sendai vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vegalta Sendai win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Vegalta Sendai 54%, draw 24%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vegalta Sendai) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vegalta Sendai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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