Smiltene 2-4 Valmiera II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
61%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
3%
2/1
3%
2/2
36%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
14%
+4.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.0pp
61%
Away Win
66%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera II EU Bookmakers 71%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
1.22/2.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/0.71
+29% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +30%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Valmiera II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
5 Corners 4
04.11.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 2-2 Valmiera II Valmiera II LET1
23.07.2023 Valmiera II Valmiera II 0-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Valmiera II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera II beat Smiltene 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valmiera II as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smiltene and 1.00 for Valmiera II.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Valmiera II?

Smiltene 2-4 Valmiera II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Valmiera II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera II win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 19%, draw 21%, Valmiera II 61%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera II), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera II) ✓ Over 2.5
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LET1 More Latvia - 1st Division
11 May 2024
17:00 Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK Analysis →