Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-2 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
12.23
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
63%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.6
No
64%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
26%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
6%
+9.0pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.7pp
63%
Away Win
77%
-13.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
34%
+1.8pp
64%
BTTS No
66%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baladiyyat Al Mehalla EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 80%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -26%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
196 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
Crosses 20.4
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Ahly
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
1.23 xG 1.80
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
324 Passes 424
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.02.2024 Al Ahly Al Ahly 5-1 HT 3-0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Baladiyyat Al Mehalla MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1-2
AWAY Al Ahly
0.35 xG 2.02
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
128 Passes 457
56% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Al Ahly
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly squeezed past Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla had 29% of the ball to Al Ahly's 71%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.35 to 2.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahly's control.

What was the final score of Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Al Ahly?

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-2 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Al Ahly?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 15%, draw 22%, Al Ahly 63%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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