Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Dynamo Kiev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Kiev EU Bookmakers 29%
+28% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -10%
3.07/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.80
+111% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dynamo Kiev
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
03.11.2023 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 0-1 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
22.04.2023 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 1-1 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
16.10.2022 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 HT 1-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKR
03.10.2021 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 0-0 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
22.09.2021 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 HT 1-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKRK
17.04.2021 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKR
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk nicked a narrow win over Dynamo Kiev 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.50 for Dynamo Kiev.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev?

Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Dynamo Kiev in the Ukraine - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 44%, draw 22%, Dynamo Kiev 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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