Neman Grodno 0-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 11 May 2025

Neman Grodno
0-1 HT 0-0
Smorgon
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Belarus - Premier League – 2024/2025

Neman Grodno vs Smorgon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.44
No
57%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
78%
-12.7pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.4pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.2pp
57%
BTTS No
63%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Neman Grodno v Smorgon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neman Grodno EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
2.06/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.66
-14% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -21%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
503 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Neman Grodno vs Smorgon Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neman Grodno
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Smorgon
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.06.2024 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 2-1 HT 1-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
01.10.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 1-3 HT 1-2 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR
14.05.2023 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 3-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
19.09.2021 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 5-0 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.05.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-0 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR

Neman Grodno 0-1 Smorgon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neman Grodno
0-1
AWAY Smorgon
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Neman Grodno vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon nicked a narrow win over Neman Grodno 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Neman Grodno carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Neman Grodno had 66% of the ball to Smorgon's 34%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Neman Grodno had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Neman Grodno and 0.60 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Neman Grodno vs Smorgon?

Neman Grodno 0-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neman Grodno vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neman Grodno win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Neman Grodno 65%, draw 20%, Smorgon 15%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Neman Grodno), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neman Grodno) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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