Neman Grodno 2-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 29 Jun 2024

Neman Grodno
2-1 HT 1-1
Smorgon
📅29/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Belarus - Premier League – 2024

Neman Grodno vs Smorgon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
19%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.33
No
60%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 26% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
75%
-14.5pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.6pp
19%
Away Win
9%
+9.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
39%
+1.1pp
60%
BTTS No
61%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Neman Grodno v Smorgon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neman Grodno EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.02/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/2.81
-10% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -28%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
418 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Neman Grodno vs Smorgon Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neman Grodno
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Smorgon
3.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 1-3 HT 1-2 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR
14.05.2023 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 3-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
19.09.2021 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 5-0 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.05.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-0 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR

Neman Grodno 2-1 Smorgon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neman Grodno
2-1
AWAY Smorgon
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Neman Grodno vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neman Grodno nicked a narrow win over Smorgon 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Neman Grodno as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Neman Grodno had 63% of the ball to Smorgon's 37%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Neman Grodno had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.25 goals for Neman Grodno and 0.50 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Neman Grodno vs Smorgon?

Neman Grodno 2-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neman Grodno vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neman Grodno win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Neman Grodno 60%, draw 21%, Smorgon 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neman Grodno) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neman Grodno) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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