Naestved 0-1 Middelfart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.71
Over 2.5
53%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.85
No
44%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
19.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.0 — our 24% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
55%
-7.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
45%
+7.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
50%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Middelfart EU Bookmakers 45%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.56/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.90
+20% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +49%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naestved
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Middelfart
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Middelfart Middelfart 0-1 Naestved Naestved DAN2
19.09.2021 Naestved Naestved 4-0 HT 2-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
18.10.2014 Middelfart Middelfart 1-2 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naestved
0-1
AWAY Middelfart
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Naestved vs Middelfart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middelfart nicked a narrow win over Naestved 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Middelfart made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naestved had 42% of the ball to Middelfart's 58%, shots finished 5-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Naestved had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Naestved and 0.33 for Middelfart.

What was the final score of Naestved vs Middelfart?

Naestved 0-1 Middelfart in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved vs Middelfart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middelfart win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Naestved 35%, draw 28%, Middelfart 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middelfart) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middelfart) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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