Los Angeles FC 3-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 11 Jul 2024

📅11/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.18
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
21%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
3.17
Over Pick
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
18%
7.99
2-3
37%
2.31
4-5
30%
2.39
6+
15%
4.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
59%
Home Win
79%
-20.5pp
20%
Draw
12%
+7.2pp
21%
Away Win
8%
+13.4pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+6.1pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles FC The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United The Market 11%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.79/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.73
+27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
478 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 68%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
11.3 Crosses 10.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles FC
3-1
AWAY New Mexico United
1.72 xG 0.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
418 Passes 416
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Los Angeles FC vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles FC beat New Mexico United 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Los Angeles FC as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Los Angeles FC had 51% of the ball to New Mexico United's 49%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.72 to 0.38.

What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs New Mexico United?

Los Angeles FC 3-1 New Mexico United in the USA - Open Cup on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles FC vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles FC 59%, draw 20%, New Mexico United 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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