Ayr United 3-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Jul 2024

Ayr United
3-2
Kilmarnock
📅11/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Ayr United vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ayr United v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -92% / +24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
210 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Ayr United vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.24 xG 0.60
44% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
96 Passes 145
38% Pass Accuracy 48%
8 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.03.2022 Ayr United Ayr United 1-3 HT 1-3 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKCL
09.02.2022 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
26.10.2021 Ayr United Ayr United 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKCL
02.08.2021 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
14.07.2017 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
26.08.2014 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United squeezed past Kilmarnock 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kilmarnock at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ayr United and 1.33 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Kilmarnock?

Ayr United 3-2 Kilmarnock in the Friendlies on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kilmarnock win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 31%, draw 26%, Kilmarnock 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kilmarnock) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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