ADT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 11 Jul 2025

📅11/07/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-11.1pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 15%
-8% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.59/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.88
-27% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
319 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.7
24.9 Crosses 13.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.53 xG 0.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
276 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2024 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 HT 0-0 ADT ADT PER
19.05.2024 ADT ADT 2-0 HT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
1-0
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
3.12 xG 0.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
26 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
190 Passes 176
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 5
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT nicked a narrow win over Comerciantes Unidos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had ADT as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, ADT had 50% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 50%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 3.12 to 0.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold ADT's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, ADT had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ADT and 0.00 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?

ADT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 11/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split ADT 57%, draw 24%, Comerciantes Unidos 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADT), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ADT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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