De Graafschap 4-3 Volendam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.49
No
41%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
29%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.41
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
10%
14.15
X/1
11%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.81
X/X
14%
6.39
2/1
8%
20.05
2/2
9%
5.03
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.0pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.0pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.7pp
41%
BTTS No
37%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Volendam EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
1.29/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.50
-21% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.5 Crosses 13.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Volendam
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.39 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 334
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.04.2022 Volendam Volendam 3-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
10.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-2 Volendam Volendam HOL2
24.01.2021 Volendam Volendam 1-4 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
07.11.2020 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-5 HT 2-2 Volendam Volendam HOL2
09.08.2020 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-0 Volendam Volendam HAZ
20.12.2019 Volendam Volendam 3-3 HT 2-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
4-3
AWAY Volendam
2.04 xG 1.66
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
370 Passes 237
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Volendam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap squeezed past Volendam 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 59% of the ball to Volendam's 41%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.04 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Volendam led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for De Graafschap and 2.83 for Volendam.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Volendam?

De Graafschap 4-3 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Volendam?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 44%, draw 29%, Volendam 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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