Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 Aug 2024

Lechia Gdansk
1-1 HT 0-0
Zaglebie Lubin
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
14%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.49
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
15%
5.56
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
9%
4.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
14%
3.82
2/X
7%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+4.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Zaglebie Lubin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +24%
1.60/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.53
+11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
22.7 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.65 xG 1.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
350 Passes 290
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.05.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-3 HT 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
24.10.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
30.04.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
06.11.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-1 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
05.04.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
23.10.2020 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1-1
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.77 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
307 Passes 375
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lechia Gdansk at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 45% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 55%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.77 to 1.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 43%, draw 24%, Zaglebie Lubin 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lechia Gdansk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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