Puszcza Niepolomice 2-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
42%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
6.59
1/2
10%
24.85
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
7%
8.45
X/2
17%
4.13
X/X
10%
4.67
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.42
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
23%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-9.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 56%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -6%
0.87/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.04
+10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +38%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
16.0 Crosses 18.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 1.53
26% Ball Possession 74%
6 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 14
118 Passes 466
59% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 40
8 Crosses 39
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
13.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
2-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.77 xG 1.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
216 Passes 298
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice and Legia Varşova couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 44% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 56%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.77 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 1.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Legia Varşova?

Puszcza Niepolomice 2-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 31%, draw 27%, Legia Varşova 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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