Legia Varşova 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.59
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
21.2
X/1
26%
3.33
X/2
7%
16.55
X/X
6%
6.61
2/1
9%
23.3
2/2
7%
13.8
2/X
8%
22.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.1pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.4pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.11/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.80
+8% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
25.4 Crosses 17.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.49 xG 1.10
75% Ball Possession 25%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
487 Passes 95
88% Pass Accuracy 52%
25 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
13.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-1
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
2.57 xG 0.66
72% Ball Possession 28%
34 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
19 Corners 1
444 Passes 142
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
55 Box Touches 14
47 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova and Puszcza Niepolomice shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Legia Varşova at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 72% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 28%, shots finished 34-4, expected goals 2.57 to 0.66.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Legia Varşova 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 62%, draw 20%, Puszcza Niepolomice 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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