Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Aug 2025

Cruzeiro
1-2 HT 1-0
Santos
📅11/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Cruzeiro vs Santos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.35
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.92
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
23%
3.94
X/2
6%
11.5
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
8%
23.05
2/2
7%
9.7
2/X
7%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
61%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.2pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruzeiro v Santos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.63/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.61
+2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
23.1 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Cruzeiro vs Santos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Santos
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.47 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
372 Passes 344
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2023 Santos Santos 0-3 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
06.05.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
24.11.2019 Santos Santos 4-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
18.08.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
24.09.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
16.08.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BRK

Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-2
AWAY Santos
2.40 xG 1.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
15 Corners 3
304 Passes 241
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
46 Box Touches 16
36 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Cruzeiro carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 57% of the ball to Santos's 43%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.40 to 1.73 — on chances, Cruzeiro could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.33 for Santos.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Santos?

Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 60%, draw 23%, Santos 17%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5
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