Gremio 0-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Aug 2025

📅11/08/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.49
6+ Goals
9%
24.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.47
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
19%
4.1
X/2
7%
8.42
X/X
14%
4.22
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
8%
7.36
2/X
5%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
52%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.0pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.59/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.68
+24% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
16.7 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.43 xG 0.79
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
414 Passes 284
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2022 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
14.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
04.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
18.06.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
20.12.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.09.2020 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
0-1
AWAY Sport Recife
1.37 xG 1.52
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
430 Passes 261
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife nicked a narrow win over Gremio 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gremio at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gremio had 59% of the ball to Sport Recife's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.37 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 1.00 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Sport Recife?

Gremio 0-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Gremio 53%, draw 25%, Sport Recife 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gremio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
11 Aug 2025
00:30 Cruzeiro vs Santos Analysis →