AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Aug 2025

AZ Alkmaar II
2-3 HT 2-2
RKC Waalwijk
📅11/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

AZ Alkmaar II vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.78
2-3 Goals
35%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.32
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.35
1/X
10%
13.0
X/1
12%
6.93
X/2
16%
5.31
X/X
9%
5.89
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
17%
2.88
2/X
4%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.35 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.2pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar II v RKC Waalwijk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 48%
+8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.74/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.19
+21% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
11.0 Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards –

AZ Alkmaar II vs RKC Waalwijk Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1W-1D-2L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
The Meetings
12.04.2019 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-4 HT 0-3 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
21.09.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.01.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
25.08.2017 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 2-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 RKC Waalwijk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-3
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.30 xG 1.22
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
440 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk squeezed past AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 59% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 41%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.30 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 2.00 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs RKC Waalwijk?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated an RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 34%, draw 23%, RKC Waalwijk 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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