ABD 1-1 Yeni Zelanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Sep 2024

📅11/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 28% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
ABD win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
70%
-11.6pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.6pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ABD EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Yeni Zelanda EU Bookmakers 14%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
2.37/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.62
+49% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -77% / +25%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
404 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
17.3 Crosses 18.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ABD
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Yeni Zelanda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
12.10.2016 ABD ABD 1-1 HT 1-0 Yeni Zelanda Yeni Zelanda HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ABD
1-1
AWAY Yeni Zelanda
1.33 xG 0.41
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
556 Passes 238
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ABD vs Yeni Zelanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ABD and Yeni Zelanda shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had ABD at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ABD had 66% of the ball to Yeni Zelanda's 34%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.33 to 0.41.

What was the final score of ABD vs Yeni Zelanda?

ABD 1-1 Yeni Zelanda in the Friendlies on 11/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ABD vs Yeni Zelanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a ABD win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split ABD 59%, draw 21%, Yeni Zelanda 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (ABD) ✗ BTTS No
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