Hamilton 0-1 Greenock Morton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Challenge Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒21:40 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.28
6+ Goals
9%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamilton EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 33%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.56/2.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.02
+16% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamilton
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Greenock Morton
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
10.08.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 0-0 HT 0-0 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
11.04.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 2-0 HT 0-0 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
14.01.2023 Hamilton Hamilton 1-0 HT 1-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
08.10.2022 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 5-0 HT 3-0 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
30.07.2022 Hamilton Hamilton 1-1 HT 1-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
16.04.2022 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
POST-MATCH Hamilton vs Greenock Morton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greenock Morton edged past Hamilton 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Hamilton at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hamilton and 1.33 for Greenock Morton.

What was the final score of Hamilton vs Greenock Morton?

Hamilton 0-1 Greenock Morton in the Scotland - Challenge Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamilton vs Greenock Morton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamilton win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hamilton 43%, draw 27%, Greenock Morton 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hamilton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamilton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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