Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.47
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.68
Over 2.5
35%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-14.8pp
30%
Draw
22%
+8.1pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.4pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.28/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.37
-10% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
16.5 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 Passes 301
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
21.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.02.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.04.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
27.10.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
2-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.07 xG 0.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
315 Passes 225
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin saw off Alianza Petrolera 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 55% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 45%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.07 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.33 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?

Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 30%, Alianza Petrolera 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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