Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Independiente Medellin v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
0-1
HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
3-1
HT 2-1
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
1-1
HT 1-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
3-0
HT 1-0
Independiente Medellin
KOL
Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Petrolera — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Medellin saw off Alianza Petrolera 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Independiente Medellin had 55% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 45%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.07 to 0.60.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.33 for Alianza Petrolera.
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?
Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 30%, Alianza Petrolera 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.