Alianza Petrolera 2-0 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 25 Feb 2024

Alianza Petrolera
2-0 HT 2-0
Independiente Medellin
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Petrolera v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.39/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.16
+20% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.5 Crosses 12.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 0.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
304 Passes 321
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.02.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.04.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
27.10.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
10.04.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL

Alianza Petrolera 2-0 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2-0
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.49 xG 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
200 Passes 149
72% Pass Accuracy 62%
4 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera beat Independiente Medellin 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Alianza Petrolera found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 53% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 47%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.49 to 1.50 — on chances, Independiente Medellin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.50 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?

Alianza Petrolera 2-0 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 36%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✓ Under 2.5
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