Aluminij 3-1 Ilirija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.4pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminij EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilirija EU Bookmakers 18%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.61/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.05
-8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminij
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ilirija
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.11.2022 Ilirija Ilirija 2-3 HT 1-1 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN2
05.08.2022 Aluminij Aluminij 0-0 HT 0-0 Ilirija Ilirija SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aluminij
3-1
AWAY Ilirija
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aluminij vs Ilirija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aluminij got the better of Ilirija 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aluminij as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aluminij had 58% of the ball to Ilirija's 42%, shots finished 16-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aluminij had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aluminij and 1.00 for Ilirija.

What was the final score of Aluminij vs Ilirija?

Aluminij 3-1 Ilirija in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminij vs Ilirija?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aluminij win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Aluminij 54%, draw 22%, Ilirija 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aluminij) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aluminij)
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