Motagua 2-1 Genesis PN — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 11 Nov 2024

Motagua
2-1 HT 2-0
Genesis PN
📅11/11/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2025/2026

Motagua vs Genesis PN Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.45
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-16.6pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
27%
Away Win
14%
+12.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.7pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motagua v Genesis PN — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Genesis PN EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.97/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.67
-1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards –

Motagua vs Genesis PN Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Genesis PN
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Genesis PN 0-3 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
04.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
05.02.2024 Genesis PN 0-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
30.09.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
06.08.2023 Genesis PN 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Genesis PN
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua nicked a narrow win over Genesis PN 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motagua and 0.00 for Genesis PN.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Genesis PN?

Motagua 2-1 Genesis PN in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 11/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Genesis PN?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Motagua 48%, draw 25%, Genesis PN 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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