Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Perth Glory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 12 Jan 2024

Melbourne Victory (K)
1-1 HT 1-0
Perth Glory (K)
📅12/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.0pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Perth Glory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory (K) EU Bookmakers 23%
-68% / -68% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
1.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.49/1.49
-77% / -80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +109% / +35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory (K)
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 1.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
267 Passes 274
68% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.12.2019 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 1-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
10.02.2019 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-4 HT 1-0 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) AVUSTW
01.02.2019 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 1-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.12.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) AVUSTW
19.11.2017 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 3-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Perth Glory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1-1
AWAY Perth Glory (K)
1.30 xG 0.35
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
420 Passes 358
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) and Perth Glory (K) couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory (K) at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 53% of the ball to Perth Glory (K)'s 47%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.30 to 0.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 2.00 for Perth Glory (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Perth Glory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 50%, draw 26%, Perth Glory (K) 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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