Alvarado 2-1 Guillermo Brown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 12 Feb 2024

📅12/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
46%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.9pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.6pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alvarado EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Guillermo Brown EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.50/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.39
+15% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alvarado
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Guillermo Brown
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
06.10.2023 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown 2-0 HT 1-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
28.05.2023 Alvarado Alvarado 2-0 HT 2-0 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown ARJPBN
03.04.2022 Alvarado Alvarado 1-0 HT 0-0 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown ARJPBN
03.11.2019 Alvarado Alvarado 0-0 HT 0-0 Guillermo Brown Guillermo Brown ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alvarado
2-1
AWAY Guillermo Brown
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alvarado edged past Guillermo Brown 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alvarado as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alvarado had 54% of the ball to Guillermo Brown's 46%, shots finished 15-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Alvarado had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Alvarado and 0.50 for Guillermo Brown.

What was the final score of Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown?

Alvarado 2-1 Guillermo Brown in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alvarado win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Alvarado 53%, draw 24%, Guillermo Brown 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alvarado) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alvarado) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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