Agua Santa 2-0 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 12 Feb 2024

📅12/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.34
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
54%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
16%
+11.1pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.3pp
54%
Away Win
64%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Agua Santa EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 69%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+57% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
6.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.7 Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Agua Santa
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Ituano
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 0.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.02.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-3 HT 0-2 Agua Santa Agua Santa BREPAU
29.03.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-2 HT 1-1 Agua Santa Agua Santa BREPAU
09.02.2022 Agua Santa Agua Santa 2-2 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
02.02.2020 Agua Santa Agua Santa 1-1 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
30.03.2016 Agua Santa Agua Santa 0-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Agua Santa
2-0
AWAY Ituano
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
326 Passes 228
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Agua Santa vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Agua Santa beat Ituano 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ituano at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Agua Santa had 57% of the ball to Ituano's 43%, shots finished 20-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Agua Santa had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Agua Santa and 1.00 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Agua Santa vs Ituano?

Agua Santa 2-0 Ituano in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Agua Santa vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Agua Santa 27%, draw 19%, Ituano 54%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Ituano), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BREPAU More Brazil - Paulista A1
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