Ajax II 3-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Feb 2024

📅12/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.14
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.35
No
43%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.76
2-3 Goals
37%
2.26
4-5 Goals
27%
2.37
6+ Goals
14%
4.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.27
1/2
11%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
20%
4.81
X/2
8%
8.45
X/X
10%
7.03
2/1
9%
18.1
2/2
11%
4.86
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
70%
-13.0pp
43%
BTTS No
30%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.54/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.57
+18% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
10.8 Crosses 14.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.79 xG 1.83
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
516 Passes 248
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
20.02.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-2 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
16.09.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
29.04.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
27.09.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 3-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
19.03.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 4-3 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
3-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.65 xG 0.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
23 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
417 Passes 357
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II swept aside MVV Maastricht 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax II as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Ajax II had 51% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 49%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.65 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Ajax II and 2.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs MVV Maastricht?

Ajax II 3-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 45%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax II), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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