Utrecht II 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Feb 2024

Utrecht II
1-2 HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar II
📅12/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.27
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
7%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 32% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.32
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
10%
6.17
X/2
12%
4.96
X/X
12%
4.5
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
26%
3.18
2/X
4%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.5pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.7pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht II v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.03/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.36
-26% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
13.1 Crosses 12.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.05 xG 1.68
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
305 Passes 396
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
17.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
09.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.03.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
10.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
12.02.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 HT 2-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2

Utrecht II 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
1-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
3.30 xG 1.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
248 Passes 331
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II squeezed past Utrecht II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Utrecht II had 45% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 55%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.30 to 1.82 — on chances, Utrecht II could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Utrecht II and 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Utrecht II 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 34%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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