ES Tunis 3-2 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 12 Feb 2025

📅12/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.25
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
3.05
No
53%
1.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
76%
-17.3pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.7pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
29%
+18.6pp
53%
BTTS No
71%
-18.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.86/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.14/1.43
+13% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / +13%
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
422 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 169 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Tunis
4W-1D-1L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 1-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1
12.11.2023 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-2 HT 0-1 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1B
02.09.2023 ES Tunis ES Tunis 3-2 HT 2-2 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
18.04.2022 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 1-2 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1
22.11.2021 ES Tunis ES Tunis 3-0 HT 2-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1A
19.05.2021 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-2 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis edged past ES Metlaoui 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had ES Tunis as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ES Tunis had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for ES Tunis and 1.00 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs ES Metlaoui?

ES Tunis 3-2 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 12/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 59%, draw 25%, ES Metlaoui 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Tunis) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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